A Caveat on Expectations and Predictions

A Caveat on Expectations and Predictions

November, 2014

Getting Readddddy!

Despite the unstable way my bicycle moved (never entirely willing to go in a straight line on the narrow dirt paths between houses) and despite Johanna’s bicycle needing constant roadside repair and even though we got lost more than once (or possibly only knew where we were once), my second trip to Dala was breathtaking. The feeling of the wind in my hair, laced with red and brown dust from the path we flew on (which later proved to pose a challenge to rinse out), the freedom to abruptly stop and arbitrarily watch some boys play fútbal on a barren patch of land and the short rest we took sitting on a small poured cement bridge with our feet dangling over the ledge sipping on a cold drink is difficult to compare to anything.


Not a single person frowned at what others might perceive as an intrusion as we sped by giggling on our rickety bikes, waving at kids and smiling at adults. We weren’t there as slum tourists – gawking at them like zoo animals. We were just there as people and were met with curiosity and warmth. Each times that Johanna’s chain broke on her bike, local boys ran to our assistance and with sticks and mechanical skills that we both lacked, fixed it. Each time they adamantly refused tips and just smiled and laughed and told us to ride slower so that it wouldn’t happen again (we tried to listen the 2^nd time).

I was warned when I arrived in Myanmar on August 15^th that people would be courteous and there was no reason to fear hostility from people in Yangon but to be aware that they would likely be very guarded and careful around expats. I was told there was a sense of mistrust towards the trickle of expat businessmen and the sudden flocks of tourists coming into Myanmar so suddenly since the opening of Myanmar around 2010. After decades of being notoriously shut off from the rest of the world, Myanmar was suddenly a hotspot of foreign activity and the drastic change, which was coupled with numerous other changes, must have been startling.

Nope.
(credit: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/opinion/7250-the-new-expat-s-burden-in-myanmar.html)

A growing tourism industry has changed that somewhat, with the number of tourists growing from around 791,000 in 2010 to more than 2.04 in 2013 but there remains a lack of clarity as to what motivations drove some foreigners in and what the impact of us would be (as demonstrated by declarations by a radical group of Buddhist monks about the desecration of Buddhist culture following what they demeaned a blasphemous depiction of Buddha on Facebook as part of a promotion for a local bar which resulted in the arrest of the expat manager). This sense of uncertainty is not helped by the tendency for the expats who reside here to stay in expat enclaves and rarely make attempts to get to know non-expats living in Myanmar, except perhaps their drivers and staff, as is common among expats everywhere.

Foreigners coming into Myanmar are also often poorly informed of what they should expect upon arrival. Little news came in or out of Myanmar for decades. Even expats in country were able to collect but little information even about their own work and projects. 

Definitely worth a read and easily accessible.

Exhibit A: Census and Predictions 
Differ by NINE Million

There is precious little data available, as demonstrated by the importance of the recently conducted census, the first in 30 years which proved that previous population estimates and other demographic information used by the government, local NGOs and INGOs was in many cases erroneous. Prior to the census, the total population of Myanmar was estimated to be 60 million, a number derived from estimating population growth and projecting previous figures based on this. In reality, it turn out that the population of Myanmar is 51.4 million people. That’s almost nine million people that were in fact not there. An error of that magnitude has huge implications on the planning of the provision of services by the government and its development partners, among other things.

Even simple things like accurate maps (especially digital ones that could be used on a computer for GIS work or for GPS navigation) which would correctly identify where roads, rivers and villages are located, are difficult or near impossible to acquire.  Basic and essential data remains unconfirmed or entirely missing.

Exhibit B: Lots of Missing Data and the Population Data, as discussed, is just WRONG.

Travel within Myanmar is still restricted by the government, with certain areas requiring permits and guides in order to be accessed by even NGOs while others remain entirely off limits to foreigners (and to a certain extent, to the people of Myanmar from outside these areas).

Sentiment towards foreigners in these areas is no doubt very different from what I have experienced in Yangon, Bagan (Nyang Yu) and Inle Lake (Heho).



And different from what we experienced that afternoon in Dala.

As we sped along the road, people turned to look and wave. 

Dala, despite being only a short 3 min ferry ride from Yangon, is still a small village and when there are foreigners there, they ride on trichaws to specific sites (pagoda, market, orphanage) with a guide. Rarely do they hire two bikes off a local man 5 minutes walk from the ferry and ride about aimlessly and giddily down little paths too narrow for trichaws for three hours.

Blissfully Break by the Water

With my legs off the pedals and pointed straight out, head tossed back and with an eye barely on the road, someone snapped a picture of us and laughed. I laughed back.

Top: Jo. Bottom: My.

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